Thursday, May 10, 2012

Misty Mountain Drop


From Wikipedia: The Panic of 1837 was a financial crisis or market correction in the United States built on a speculative fever. The end of the Second Bank of the United States had produced a period of runaway inflation, but on May 10, 1837 in New York City, every bank began to accept payment only in specie (gold and silver coinage), forcing a dramatic, deflationary backlash. This was based on the assumption by former president, Andrew Jackson, that the government was selling land for state bank notes of questionable value. The Panic was followed by a five-year depression, with the failure of banks and then-record-high unemployment levels.

From NYTimes: MOSCOW — The wreckage of a demonstration airplane for a Russian-made passenger jet that vanished on Wednesday during a 50-minute flight over Indonesia was found on Thursday on the side of a mountain volcano shrouded in mist.
There were no signs of survivors among the 50 people, including crew members, journalists and airline representatives, aboard the plane, the Sukhoi Superjet 100, a spokesman for Indonesia’s Search and Rescue National Agency told The Associated Press.

SUKHOI SUPERJET 100 CRASH

Naked Swan Trading made a comment on ZeroHedge that really illuminates what is going on in the capital markets. On the one hand, capital is fleeing Europe to avoid instability. And on the other hand, capital is fleeing Europe because bond holders believe that interest rates in the US have nowhere to go but up from here.
Here's the video that lays it all out:

NAKED SWAN TRADING EURODOLLAR CRITICAL ALERT

From the video: "And as a result, a lot of the foreign and US banks that are holding trillions upon trillions of dollars in these types of derivative instruments could suffer an enormous downside event. And I believe that could be the tail risk event that Warren Buffett was talking about a long time ago regarding a derivative blowup, or financial weapons of mass destruction. So that could be the black swan event that nobody is seeing right now. Everyone is so focused on just the equity markets and what's going on in Europe that they may not see the fact that there could be a mass exodus of US capital out of Europe in a much bigger way as reflected in the Eurodollar futures. And that would lead to a severe depression in Europe. This event is not going to be very easy to control because what I'm seeing right now in the bond market in the United States is extreme risk."

From Wikipedia: Eurodollars are time deposits denominated in U.S. dollars at banks outside the United States, and thus are not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much less regulation than similar deposits within the U.S., allowing for higher margins. The term was originally coined for U.S. dollars in European banks.

Here are the relevant mid-week charts:

EURODOLLAR INDEX
GOLDMAN SACHS
MORGAN STANLEY
JEFFERIES GROUP
US DOLLAR ETF
30 YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD
30 YEAR TREASURY BOND YIELD LONG TERM