Sunday, October 14, 2012

Real Problems With The Fed's Economic Model


I'm sure whatever they're spraying in the sky is for our own good and protection. There is probably something wrong with the earth or the cosmos that requires a lot of man made clouds above us. There is definitely something wrong with the Fed's economic model. This whole "real potential GDP" concept might have made some sense in the past, but lately it has no relationship to reality.

The chart you commonly see is the one that shows the $1 trillion difference in nominal terms between the inflation adjusted potential GDP and the actual reported number. But what you don't commonly see are the two data series broken down in year over year terms. That's when the Fed's model of how things should be starts to look like it has gone completely off the reservation.

Thanks to Excel the 5 year over year series comparison provides a good laugh...